Evaluating Pitcher Talent
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The coque integrale magnetique iphone 8 discussion of what statistics are useful in evaluating a pitcher came up in the game thread, again, last night. This issue comes up quite a bit around here, since I use a lot of non conventional numbers, and new readers often don know what they mean, where to find them, or why they should bother. So, last s5 coque samsung night, I decided to write coque samsung s6 edge snoopy something of a primer on why I like to use the statistics that I use, what their usefulness is, and coque samsung a10 why I don really care about things like ERA, WHIP, or batting average against.
All the stats referenced, by the way, can be found at the Hardball Times, and detailed game logs using these numbers can be found at Fangraphs, which are two of the most awesome sites out there right now.
The mainstream tools for evaluating a pitcher success and abilities are won loss record coque iphone 8 slim carbon and earned run average, with fantasy baseball players often add WHIP (walks+hits per inning pitched) to the discussion, since it one of their categories. These statistics attempt to sum up pitcher effectiveness in total, giving an overview of the totality of his performance with just a few numbers.
I, personally, think they fail in that regard. ERA and WHIP group together a large string of individual events made by multiple players, making it extremely tough to separate out the credit for the pitcher, hitter, or defense. WHIP and ERA tell you there is no difference in an inning where three batters drive the ball to the fence and end coque samsung j5 coque iphone 8 plus vw up with three long flyouts or an inning where a pitcher strikes out the side. Clearly, theyre drastically different, but WHIP and ERA fail to account for the actual contributions of the pitcher. So, if the goal is to actually find out how well a pitcher threw, why not look at a micro level, instead of a macro level That what I prefer to do.
For instance, what are the possible events in an at bat that can occur
A pitch can be thrown for a ball.
A pitch can be thrown for a strike.
A pitch can be swung at and missed.
The ball can be hit on the ground.
The ball can be hit on a line.
The ball can be hit in the air.
On any given pitch, those are the options. There are a few sub categories under those options (outfield fly or infield fly, bunt grounder or normal grounder, etc), but we can sum up every possible outcome of each pitch with those six options. Those outcomes might lead to wildly different events, but we get to that later.
Which of these six outcomes are positive for the pitcher Called strike, swinging strike, and groundball.
Which of coque iphone 8 plus pois these six outcomes are positive for the hitter Called ball, line drive, and flyball.
If we can effectively determine which pitchers maximize their value in the good outcomes and minimize their harm in the bad outcomes, we can get a pretty firm grasp coque de samsung galaxy s5 mini on who has pitching talent and who does not. Thankfully, Dave Studeman wrote a fantastic article called A Batted Ball Worth in the , and it includes the following run value chart. This chart will give a context to those good and bad outcome categories:
Line Drive: .356 in other words, an average line drive is worth 35% of one run.
These run values were taken from real life play by play data, so this is an actual representation of events, not some theoretic formula. As you can see, a hit by coque iphone xs garcron pas cher pitch is a better event for the offense than a walk, even though they both simply put the batter on first abcgreen coque iphone xs base. Why Because a hit by pitch is pretty much random, and can occur both at times when it is a critical situation and times when it isn A walk, conversely, is far more likely to put a runner on first base in a run scoring situation, lowering it run value compared to the HBP.
As you can see, the difference between an outfield fly and a groundball isnt huge, but its real, and it adds up over the course of the season. This is why, all things equal, a groundball pitcher is better than a flyball pitcher. All things are almost never equal, and flyball pitchers tend to have higher strikeout rates than groundball pitchers, but the theoretical best pitcher alive would be a groundball pitcher, not a flyball pitcher.
So, now that we have some understanding of the possible outcomes and their relative value, instead of using statistics like ERA or WHIP that leave out critical information, our best bet is to try to quantify the six potential outcomes, and the events that result from those outcomes as coque 360 iphone 8 or best as we can.
BB% (Walks per Total Batters Faced) does a nice job evaluating how often a pitcher throws the ball in the strike zone. The coque samsung note average walkrate is 8% for a major league coque samsung a8 pitcher, though the DH makes the AL coque iphone 8 plus mandala a higher walk league than the NL. Anything under 5% is tremendous, and anything over 11% is a problem. The Hardball Times publishes BB% and K% in a slightly different manner, calling it BB/G or K/G to make it scale more like the per nine innings numbers people are used to seeing. BB/G (and BB%, its derivitive) is more effective than BB/9 because it accounts for the actual amount of batters faced rather than using a proxy like innings pitched. It just more accurate.
K% (Strikeouts per Total coque iphone 8 plus avec clapet Batters Faced) does a decent job evaluating how often a pitcher induces swings and misses or called strikes. 16% is league average, with 20% being terrific and 12% being a problem.
GB% (Groundballs per Balls In Play) does a very good job of telling us how often a pitcher induces a groundball. 42% is league average, and anything over 50% is terrific, with the best sinkerball pitchers posting rates in the 60 65% range, while anything below 35% can be a problem if coque samsung galaxy s6 tumblr its not offset with a high strikeout rate.
LD% (Line Drives per Balls In Play) does a very good job of telling us how often a pitcher gives up line drives. 20% is league average, 17% is good, and 23% is a serious problem. Because coque samsung s6 femme of the way line drives have been scored by Baseball Info Solutions the past couple of years, this number is hard to use for year to year analysis, and right now, it not a very effective tool. We don use it very often.
FB% (Flyballs per Balls In Play) does a very good coque samsung s7
So we have five statistics that cover each of the six possible outcomes pretty effectively. Not perfect, but they do a credible job. They aren park adjusted (and yes, parks have an effect on things you might not expect, such as walk rates, strikeout rates, and groundball rates), but they pretty close for the majority of cases.
Thanks to the work of guys like Voros McCracken, Tom Tippett, Keith Woolner, and Dave Studeman, we also now know that the result of a particular ball in play is also not very consistent, and is due more to the actions of the hitter than the pitcher. So, when evaluating pitcher talent, we need to coque integrale note 8 samsung adjust for outlier type performances on converting outs on balls in play. If a pitcher has a lot of flyballs that are being caught on the warning track, or groundballs that are going right to infielders, thats not likely to continue, and we shouldnt assume that it will.
Not all balls in play are created equal, however, and so when we adjusting for outs on balls in play, we need to make sure we adjusting back to the type of ball in play the pitcher is giving up, since we noted that they certainly do have control over their groundball or flyball tendencies…